|
“Although BSE wrecked the beef trade,
it boosted the pig kill and lamb prices”, states The
Grocer, noting that FMD has perhaps “caused traders to
forget earlier warnings of dangerous supply and price movements.”
Statistics from DEFRA indicate that production in the UK of
sheep meat and pork has been “hit hardest” in 2001.
DEFRA’s latest estimates put beef production down 8%
from a year earlier, pork output 7% down, sheep meat down
32%, and edible offal down 20%.
“The kill data are widely interpreted as meaning FMD
has hurt the abattoir operators more than the 1996 BSE crisis,
because this time slaughtering of all three species has dropped
without fully compensating increases in meat output values”
reports The Grocer (05 January 2002). It describes retailers
and meat product manufacturers as seeming “assured of
more abundant domestic raw material supplies this year as
the UK authorities continue relaxing livestock movement controls
imposed during FMD”. However, “breeding cycles and
structural problems in the primary processing industry suggest
the market will remain deeply troubled”.
Wrongs, Whoopsies, & Gongs
At the Royal Show in July 2000 Don Curry, then chairman of
the Meat and Livestock Commission, addressed an invited audience
of guests from the industry, uttering his confidence that
an increase of 35% in meat consumption in the next decade
was likely in global terms; he also expected a rise of affluent
customers from 2.1bn to 2.7bn and an increase in world demand
that would benefit British meat-producers, whose output would
rise from 3.8m to 4.4m tons a year. He forecast a major opportunity
for British suppliers in the continuing growth in the catering
and processed meat sectors, which he expected to account by
2010 for two-thirds of the total market (Meat Trades Journal,
06 July 2000).
The chairman of the Government’s Policy Commission on
Farming and Food, appointed last August, is none other than
the now-ennobled Sir Donald Curry, whose predictions hardly
suit him for an understanding of the deep shambles –
an appropriate word – the live/dead stock industry is
trying yet again to extricate itself from, and hoping to milk
the government of more subsidies. Luck-money indeed for blunders,
complacency, and indifference! The reputation of British farming,
food production, and the environment have been dragged down
to depths to which importers and visitors from abroad are
reluctant to descend.
Second, Third ..... Thoughts
Last year the MLC’s economists reanalysed Sir Donald’s
unfortunate folly: the MLC now forecast “irreversible
change” and “the UK sheep industry might have to
prepare itself for long-term contraction”. The MLC’s
economists warned of “poorer prospects for exporters”.
The MLC’s 2001 forecasts spell difficulties in the dairy/beef/veal
complex and predict sharp falls in pig-meat production in
the UK, and they entertained “worrying implications”
for the UK, as countries such as Canada increased production
and exports. Nevertheless, sounds of his previous master’s
voice can be heard in a pronouncement by Bob Bansback, the
MLC’s corporate strategy director, of confidence mainly
based on economic factors (which could mean more subsidies)
and the red meat industry’s “extreme resilience”
in “the face of BSE, Ecoli, and FMD”.
Early last year Duncan Sinclair, senior economic analyst
at the MLC, raised the industry’s hopes with evidence
of a reversal of the BSE-provoked fall in beef-consumption
and production. Sales of mince, roasts, and steaks increased
in 2001; in processed meats burger sales increased by 11%
and ready-meals by 22%. As in 1999 the number of cows slaughtered
and destroyed (as suitable only for incineration) in the OTMS
scheme (which takes care, at government cost, of animals unsalable
because they are at the highest risk of BSE) totalled 910,000
head. “There was also a steady increase in imports last
year, influenced by the need to import to meet demand as intervention
stocks were used up” (Meat Trades Journal, 08 February
2001).
The MLC’s senior economic analyst Lesley Green reported
that 15.957 million lambs were slaughtered in the UK in 2000,
1.4% below forecast, but the ewe kill rose and sheep meat
was eaten as mutton; a “modest” rise in live exports
to 835,000 head was assumed.
The outlook for the pig industry, which was recovering from
the “havoc” wrought by Classical Swine Fever, was
clouded by “lower availability” in 2000, “which
affected consumption trends and caused a rise in pork and
bacon imports, with the Dutch share in bacon increasing from
48% to 55% and a reduction in exports of 30%.”
Even before FMD, problems loomed for the pig meat industry,
including “a fall in demand for sow carcases from Germany
after it was found that labelling failed to disclose beef-content
in sausages”.
Table: Estimates of the number of cattle, sheep and pigs
slaughtered for meat in the United Kingdom (Thousand Head).
Figures from DEFRA
Customer Countdown
Nearly 1 in 5 shoppers are switching to their local butcher
for their purchases of meat instead of buying it at supermarkets.
Further research reported by Good Housekeeping Magazine found
that “people are also eating less meat, with 55% claiming
to have cut back and 27% trying alternatives to meat or fish”
(The Grocer, 11 August 2001)
The survey of 1000 customers found 76% buying the same amount
of British meat as before the foot-and-mouth crisis, while
92% believe that imported meat is no safer than British. “Traditional”
farming methods are trusted by 87%. Over 80% say they would
pay an extra £9 a week “to guarantee safe food”;
only 1 in 6 trust supermarkets to sell safe food and nearly
70% say that “their trust in supermarkets has been dented”.
<<
PAGE TOP >>
|
